Market Monitor – 15 December 2023
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Market Monitor – 15 December 2023

Central bankers in the United States gave global stock markets a major boost this week by suggesting they will start to cut interest rates early in the new year.

Share prices rallied on Wednesday and Thursday after the Federal Reserve confirmed it would leave monetary policy unchanged for the rest of 2023, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that policymakers currently expected to make as many as three rate cuts in 2024. Investors have been hopeful that looser monetary policy is around the corner and, with latest data showing a further fall in inflation in the US, the Fed now appears confident it can start to unwind its tightening programme.

After their recent slump, oil prices recovered some ground on hopes that lower rates will boost growth around the world next year. However, central banks in Europe struck a more cautious tone on monetary policy and the outlook for inflation than their counterparts in Washington DC.

 

United States

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended trading on Thursday 2.8% up for the week so far, reaching an all-time high with the S&P 500 advancing towards its record peak with a gain of 2.5%. Aside from the prospect of multiple rate cuts in 2024, US markets welcomed data that showed the US economy remained resilient despite the rises in borrowing costs imposed over the past two years. Much of this week’s exuberance is based on the belief that the private sector may be able to emerge relatively unscathed from this period of monetary tightening.

UK

In the UK, the FTSE 100 closed on Thursday 1.3% up for the week so far. Commodities and oil started the week on the back foot due to concerns about growth in China, although crude prices recovered to some extent following the Fed’s announcement. However, stocks in the UK lagged their US counterparts after sterling rose against the dollar, with markets now expecting rate cuts to happen considerably more quickly in America than in Britain.

The Bank of England held rates steady at its meeting on Thursday, but Governor Andrew Bailey warned that there was still work to do to bring inflation under control – indeed, three members of the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee voted to increase the base rate this week. Meanwhile, UK GDP declined in October and analysts now expect full-year growth figures to undershoot previous forecasts.

Europe

In Frankfurt, the DAX index ended Thursday’s session unchanged for the week, while France’s CAC 40 gained 0.7%. While the European Central Bank’s decision on Thursday to leave rates unchanged was not a surprise, comments from President Christine Lagarde were also much more guarded than those published by the Fed, dashing investors’ hopes of imminent and rapid rate cuts in the eurozone.

Asia

In Asia, the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong gained 0.4%, ending Thursday’s session ahead for the week so far after Wednesday’s rally in the US. Shares in China fell on Monday after recent data showed an unexpected fall in prices in October – the latest sign of a struggling economy. Mainland stock markets slumped to five-year lows after the figures were published. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index of leading shares, meanwhile, advanced 1.2%. Research indicated an improvement in confidence among manufacturers and service sector businesses in the last quarter, although gains made by shares in Tokyo early in the week were partly erased by the strengthening yen on Thursday.

24 November
30 November
Change (%)
FTSE 100
7554.5
7649.0
1.3
FTSE 250
18702.0
19257.0
3.0
S&P 500
4604.4
4719.6
2.5
Dow Jones
36247.9
37248.4
2.8
DAX
16759.2
16752.2
0.0
CAC 40
7526.6
7575.9
0.7
ACWI
698.3
716.4
2.6
Hong Kong Hang Seng
16334.4
16402.2
0.4
Nikkei 225
32307.9
32686.3
1.2

Note: all market data contained within the article is sourced from Bloomberg unless stated otherwise, data as at 14 December 2023.

15 十二月 2023
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Market Monitor – 15 December 2023

Important information

For marketing purposes.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In the UK: issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, registered in England and Wales, No. 573204. Registered Office: Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414.  TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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Important information

For marketing purposes.

This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered representative of any particular investment. This should not be considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Investing involves risk including the risk of loss of principal. Your capital is at risk. Market risk may affect a single issuer, sector of the economy, industry or the market as a whole. The value of investments is not guaranteed, and therefore an investor may not get back the amount invested. International investing involves certain risks and volatility due to potential political, economic or currency fluctuations and different financial and accounting standards. The securities included herein are for illustrative purposes only, subject to change and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell. Securities discussed may or may not prove profitable. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change and may differ from views expressed by other Columbia Threadneedle Investments (Columbia Threadneedle) associates or affiliates. Actual investments or investment decisions made by Columbia Threadneedle and its affiliates, whether for its own account or on behalf of clients, may not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information is not intended to provide investment advice and does not take into consideration individual investor circumstances. Investment decisions should always be made based on an investor’s specific financial needs, objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. Asset classes described may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results, and no forecast should be considered a guarantee either. Information and opinions provided by third parties have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document and its contents have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority.

In the UK: issued by Threadneedle Asset Management Limited, registered in England and Wales, No. 573204. Registered Office: Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.

In Australia: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited [“TIS”], ARBN 600 027 414.  TIS is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) and relies on Class Order 03/1102 in respect of the financial services it provides to wholesale clients in Australia. This document should only be distributed in Australia to “wholesale clients” as defined in Section 761G of the Corporations Act. TIS is regulated in Singapore (Registration number: 201101559W) by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289), which differ from Australian laws.

In Singapore: Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore 239519, which is regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Registration number: 201101559W. This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

In Hong Kong: Issued by Threadneedle Portfolio Services Hong Kong Limited 天利投資管理香港有限公司. Unit 3004, Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Hong Kong, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) to conduct Type 1 regulated activities (CE:AQA779). Registered in Hong Kong under the Companies Ordinance (Chapter 622), No. 1173058.

Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.

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